Welcome to the second installment of my series, looking ahead to the rescheduled 2021 Olympic distance events. I’m predicting the three British athletes I think will make the Tokyo squad and the eventual medalists in each distance event.
British men’s 1500m running has not seen stronger depth for a long time. Like in the 800m, we currently have a good number of genuinely world class British milers to compete for three Team GB spots. This trio will be hard to get into. Qualification for Tokyo is obtained by placing in the top two at the British Athletics Outdoor Championships, provided you also have the standard or a World Athletics invite. The third team spot is given based on a combination of considerations: whoever else has the standard; their placing at the trials and the ultimate decision of British Athletics.
The team: Josh Kerr, Jake Wightman, James West
Wildcards: Charlie Grice, Neil Gourley, Chris O’Hare
Since launching himself into the spotlight as a collegiate athlete in America, Josh Kerr’s ability and racing acumen has continued to grow and grow. He upset Edward Cheserek in 2017 at the NCAA indoor championships, emerging from relative obscurity and not looking back since. Currently 22 years old, Kerr holds the british U23 record over 1500m and in the same event is the third fastest Scot of all time. He ran his impressive 3:32.52 personal best in Doha and was one of the three British men who made the final. (THREE guys in a world final by the way?!!). The world final being a great achievement on its own considering his relative youth. Since signing with the Brooks Beasts in 2018, he has further lowered his 800m and 5000m personal bests to boot. I for one am very enthusiastic about where his potential could take him. On the strength of 2019 alone I think he should be viewed as one of the favourites to make the British team. It won’t be easy at the trials; stiff competition abound, but I do think he’ll make it to Tokyo. Here’s hoping he can still fit and healthy between now and next summer.
My next pick is Jake Wightman. Another Scotsman, he trains with his dad’s group based out of Teddington, London which is about ten minutes away from me. Jake had a difficult 2019, dealing with a Sacrum stress-fracture in December 2018, he missed the indoor season and saw a race for fitness thereafter, in preparation for Doha. Along the way he then sustained hamstring issues and leading up to worlds was spending 5 days out of every seven on a bike. Despite this, he finished 5th in the final and ran a personal best of 3:31.87 in the process. If this performance on borrowed fitness doesn’t suggest there being further room for improvement I don’t know what will. Besides his rocky 2019, Jake has claimed both European and Commonwealth bronze medals in his time and has won at a smattering of diamond league meetings. At 25 he’s older and more experienced than my other picks. Quite an encouraging sign in itself, for the next few years of British middle distance running.
Finally, I’ve gone for a somewhat daring prediction in James West. I say this, as he has not yet ever run under 3:35; what he would need to do to obtain the Olympic standard. Nevertheless, the Oregon Duck, originally a Tonbridge man, has been on top form in the NCAAs. Thus I do think he has the potential to be that world class level of athlete soon. Like Josh Kerr, his name is in the NCAA record books. He is currently the fastest ever collegiate over 1500m indoors. Said time (3:36.93) was run during this year’s ill-fated indoor season. I’m personally hoping he can replicate this form the other side of the current sport hiatus and improve further. Look for him to sign a professional contract in the nearish future as his college eligibility runs out. Here’s hoping he can hit the ground running as a pro.
Such is the quality we currently possess in the 1500m, all three of my wildcards could just as reasonably expect to make the team as my main picks. I’m really looking forward to the race for this reason as drama is guaranteed. Last year, Charlie Grice for example was having a great season and lined up the fastest man there. He had a poor race however costing him his place on the team. Twists and storylines like this are great for the sport. There’s nothing like the theatre of a ‘top-three takes it all’ race between 5-6 quality guys. As such, it has been hard to pick my trio. Gourley for example, I haven’t bet on going to Tokyo. This is despite him winning the 2019 trials and making the final in Doha. The domestic win surprised many and he is young so I simply don’t rate his chances of repeating surrounded by the same guys. Grice was a 2016 olympian as was O’Hare but with both of these guys, I think they’re heading past their primes. True Grice had a great 2019 outdoor season, but these two have had their share of championship experience and failed to really do much of note on the stage. I’m not counting them out by any means but I would like to see a younger generation start to take up their mantle; starting with in these next Olympics.
Tokyo Medalists:
Gold: Timothy Cheruiyot Silver: Elijah Manangoi Bronze: Jakob Ingebrigtsen
The men’s 1500m at Tokyo should culminate in an ultimate battle between two Kenyan training partners. Timothy Cheruiyot and Elijah Manangoi, both former world champions from 2019 and 2017 respectively. The pair have shared world dominance over the 1500m event for the last three years. Barring injury to either; their duel in Japan should go right down to the wire. They share very similar personal bests (both 3:28.xx men) and prefer to win their world titles from the front, instead of waiting for the last lap. Manangoi missed Doha through injury, leaving his compatriot to storm to the gold in dominant fashion. Cheruiyot led the whole way, ran sub 3:30 in a championship final and ran four other competitors to personal bests; including a Polish National Record for Lewandoski. These guys were supposed to be ‘competition’ and Cheruiyot wiped the floor with them. A special performance. Could he do it again with the presence of Manangoi, who beat him in London though? Time will tell, I say he can.
Speaking of training partners, the youngest Ingebrigtsen is my pick for bronze. In 2019 he was still targeting the 1500, 5000 double in Japan; so I’m assuming that is still his plan. Beaten by Lewandoski and Makhloufi in Doha, I give him the edge two years down the road because these are guys approaching the end of their careers. Jakob still very much has time on his side. Should he continue to improve at his current rate; he will be one of the world’s best milers come 2021. The fact he chooses to straddle the 1500 and 5000m should work to his advantage in my opinion. The strength and endurance gained training for the 5000m could see him in better shape to hang with the Kenyans if they choose to stretch it out from the outset. In my opinion, his ability to kick over the last 300m against the pure middle distance elites is still unproven. What is certain, is an intriguing race; with far more than just these three guys in with a genuine chance of a medal.
Running My Mouth 